6 resultados citaram: Uma análise da relação entre governança corporativa e acurácia das previsões dos analistas do mercado brasileiro

ABSTRACT Purpose: This research examines the superiority of analysts over random walk models in forecasting the results of publicly-traded Brazilian companies in the short and long term. Originality/value: The literature indicates the uncontested superiority of market analysts because of their temporal and informational advantages. However, recent international studies call for a re-evaluation of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics, and primarily for long-term estimates, the superiority of analysts is not confirmed. Design/methodology/approach: This work evaluates the profit forecasting of analysts and simple and growth random walk models over the short and long term over 2010-2015 for publicly traded Brazilian companies, using the information available for the period with annual intervals. Findings: The results indicate: 1. the greater forecasting accuracy of simple random walk models compared to the growth random walk models; and 2. the greater forecasting accuracy of random walk models overall, with analyst forecasts only being superior for cases with three months of lag. The evidence suggests the forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts' forecasts. The results suggest low efficiency of the forecasts of market analysts for the forecast of future results of publicly traded Brazilian companies in the analyzed period.

ABSTRACT Purpose: This paper aims to verify whether the management of taxable income through aggressive tax practices negatively impacts the accuracy of market analysts’ forecasts. Originality/value: The central contribution of this study is to relate tax aggressiveness with more significant errors in analysts’ forecasts. Thus, the relevance of this paper is in showing that this practice can lead to a greater perception of companies’ risks and more significant informational asymmetry, in addition to influencing stock prices and resulting in lower analyst accuracy. Design/methodology/approach: This research paper was developed from regression models with panel data with random effects, also using estimators based on instrumental variables with the application of Jensen’s test to verify the validity of the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. The data were treated with the winsorization technique at the 1% level. Findings: A sample of companies listed on the B3 between 2010 and 2017 (with a total of 2,805 valid observations) showed that companies with higher tax aggressiveness are subject to a higher analyst forecast error. Thus, it is inferred that, for more aggressive companies, the degree of analyst predictability decreases. With this drop in the quality of analysts’ forecasts, the users of their forecasts and reports are more vulnerable to informational asymmetry.

Resumo A competitividade no mercado de trabalho de altos executivos, e busca de qualificação dos Chief Executive Officer (CEO) por parte das empresas pode levar esse profissional a superestimar suas capacidades e/ou subestimarem os riscos nos processos de tomada de decisão, aumentando a propensão de que ele apresente os vieses cognitivos excesso de confiança e otimismo (ECO). Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a relação entre a Sofisticação Financeira dos CEO's e os vieses cognitivos Excesso de Confiança e Otimismo. A amostra compreendeu 179 empresas listadas na BM&FBovespa durante os períodos de 2011 a 2015, totalizando 810 observações. A análise de componentes principais foi utilizada para a formação de três índices de sofisticação financeira: O Índice de Sofisticação Financeira Acadêmica (ISFA), o Índice de Sofisticação Financeira Profissional (ISFP), e o Índice de Sofisticação Financeira (ISF), composto pelos dois primeiros. Na análise de dados foram utilizadas regressões lineares multivariadas. Os resultados indicaram que apesar de o ISF não estar relacionado com os vieses ECO, o ISFA apresentou-se positiva e significativamente relacionado ao ECO, indicando que os CEO's que possuem formação internacional, formação financeira e experiência no ramo são propensos a apresentar os desvios cognitivos ECO.

RESUMO Objetivo: este estudo investiga a influência das fases do ciclo de vida organizacional na relação das divulgações voluntárias corporativas com a assertividade das previsões de lucros feitas por analistas financeiros. Marco teórico: a assimetria de informações, segundo a teoria da agência, gera conflitos entre gestores e investidores. Complementarmente, a teoria da sinalização indica que a comunicação de informações privadas pode reduzir a ocorrência desses conflitos. Analistas financeiros interpretam esses sinais, alinhando expectativas, mitigando conflitos e aprimorando decisões no mercado ao reduzir custos de monitoramento. Método: foram analisados 472 relatórios anuais e 1.723 observações de 61 empresas listadas na Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) (2010-2020), por meio de checklist, estatística descritiva, testes de comparação entre grupos e regressões logit e OLS. Resultados: os resultados indicam que a divulgação voluntária impacta a precisão das previsões dos analistas de maneira distinta. A divulgação de informações estratégicas e de desempenho aumenta a complexidade informacional, especialmente em períodos de crescimento e turbulência, refletindo desafios no alinhamento de interesses entre as partes. Em contrapartida, a divulgação voluntária voltada para responsabilidade social e sustentabilidade facilita o entendimento das condições da empresa, ajudando os analistas em contextos de maior incerteza, como nos estágios de turbulência e declínio do ciclo de vida organizacional. Conclusão: o ciclo de vida organizacional modera a relação entre divulgação voluntária e a qualidade das previsões dos analistas, destacando a importância de os gestores ajustarem suas estratégias de divulgação para atender às demandas informacionais de cada estágio, reduzindo incertezas e promovendo maior alinhamento com os interesses do mercado.

ABSTRACT Objective: this study investigates the influence of organizational life cycle stages on the relationship between corporate voluntary disclosures and the accuracy of earnings forecasts made by financial analysts. Theoretical approach: information asymmetry, according to agency theory, generates conflicts between managers and investors. Complementarily, signaling theory suggests that the communication of private information can help bridge this gap. Financial analysts interpret these signals, aligning expectations, mitigating conflicts, and enhancing market decisions by reducing monitoring costs. Methods: a total of 472 annual reports and 1,723 observations from 61 companies listed on the B3 stock exchange (2010-2020) were analyzed using a checklist, descriptive statistics, group comparison tests, and logit and OLS regressions. Results: the findings indicate that voluntary disclosure affects the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts in distinct ways. The disclosure of strategic and performance-related information increases informational complexity, particularly during periods of growth and turbulence, reflecting challenges in aligning stakeholder interests. Conversely, voluntary disclosures related to social responsibility and sustainability facilitate understanding of the company’s conditions, aiding analysts in contexts of greater uncertainty, such as during the turbulence and decline stages of the organizational life cycle. Conclusion: the organizational life cycle moderates the relationship between voluntary disclosure and the quality of analysts’ forecasts, underscoring the importance of managers tailoring their disclosure strategies to meet the informational demands of each stage, reduce uncertainties, and promote better alignment with market interests.

Purpose This study aims to examine the listing of firms at the highest corporate governance level of the Brazilian stock exchange (B3) as a means of legitimation and its relationship with risk and return on investment. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyzes 205 companies from 2010 to 2019, in which firms listed at the Novo Mercado level were compared with groups composed of other firms traded on B3. Findings The main results demonstrate that a listing at the supposedly higher level of corporate governance in Brazil does not indicate lower risk, a higher return or even a better risk-return ratio. Research limitations/implications The findings are restricted to this sample, representing the association identified between the analyzed phenomena and not a cause-effect relationship. Practical implications The highest level of corporate governance in Brazil brings together firms that present a higher risk (at least systematic) and lower returns (at least financial) because they seek to legitimize themselves in the market as firms committed to better management practices. Social implications These findings are useful to investors, the stock exchange, regulatory agents and the companies themselves to reflect on the purpose and usefulness of different levels of corporate governance in Brazil. Originality/value This study differs from the others that relate corporate governance to risk or return because it does not deal individually with corporate governance practices, but rather the phenomenon that is listed in a special governance level, created by the stock exchange, serving as a kind of seal legitimation.