Criminal and Socio-Economic Interconnections: Empirical Analysis of Violence against the Person

ABSTRACT Objective: the goal of this study was to analyze the explanatory factors of violent crimes against individuals. Theoretical approach: the study is based on the broken windows theory, which postulates that visible signs of disorder and low-level criminality can encourage more serious crimes, and the Theory of Social Disorder, which emphasizes that structural and socioeconomic factors of a community influence criminality dynamics. Methods: panel data and instrumental variables were used, which were estimated from data on 853 municipalities in Minas Gerais between 2014 and 2021, to verify how visible signs of urban disorder and community structural factors influence the incidence of violent crimes against individuals. Results: the results indicated a positive relationship between violent crimes against individuals and robbery and illegal possession of firearms. In turn, the variables ‘proportion of the population served by the Family Health Strategy’ and ‘population density’ were negatively associated with violent crimes against individuals. Conclusions: the findings highlighted the idea of complementarity between criminal modalities defended by the Broken Windows Theory, and also reinforce that the socioeconomic context plays a crucial role in criminality dynamics, corroborating the idea supported by Theory of Social Disorder. Therefore, this study suggests that the State should adopt public policies that integrate ostensive approaches (such as direct crime fighting) and inclusive social policies (such as healthcare), rather than treating them as mutually exclusive strategies.